The price of gasoline in California is regularly the highest in the nation, as it was last week.

That makes pain at the pump a ready-made, high-profile election issue, though sometimes more so than others. The 2026 election may be one of those times.

It’s rare that an election hinges solely on the cost of gas, but the issue is more politically potent if it becomes shorthand for a troubled economy.

High gas prices tend to put pressure on the incumbent party, which in California is the Democratic Party, of course.

But the cost has been comparatively high for decades. Over that time, Democrats have strengthened their hold on the state Capitol and the California congressional delegation, despite the seeming back-and-forth in a handful of swing districts from election to election.

Still, candidates on both sides of the aisle constantly see opportunity, or the need for a strong defense, in high gas prices.

Republicans blame Democratic policies of high fuel taxes, more expensive blends for cleaner emissions and various regulations. Democrats tend to blame oil companies, regularly accusing them of gouging to make excessive profits and even passing state legislation to prevent it.

Increased charges on gasoline along with oil company plans to shutter two refineries in the state recently have put the future cost of filling up higher on the public agenda in California.

Leading the charge on this has been state Sen. Brian Jones of Santee, the Senate Republican leader.

Late last year, Jones put the spotlight on actions by the California Air Resources Board, most of whose members were appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, that some analysts say could add 65 cents to the price of a gallon of gas in the near future.

(As of Thursday, the average price of a gallon of gas in California was $4.83, according to Forbes — $1.65 more than the national average.)

The added expense comes from CARB’s vote to expand the low carbon fuel standard program, which is aimed at reducing pollution and climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions while the state seeks to allow only zero-emission vehicles such as electric cars in the coming years.

That did gain some attention, but nothing like what came next: A University of Southern California professor released a study last month concluding the price per gallon could increase to more than $6 by the end of this year and to nearly $8.50 by the end of 2026 because of refinery closures, regulations, taxes and fees on gas.

Jones said gas prices will be central to Republican efforts to pick up seats in the Legislature next year, along with other familiar issues such as crime, homelessness and education. Jones is termed out in 2026 and can’t run for re-election, but said he will remain Republican leader throughout the year and be involved in GOP strategy.

“We’re going to make this a daily issue in California,” he said of gas prices.

He contends part of the goal of higher prices is to “make people switch to expensive electric vehicles, public transportation and bicycles. That may work for some people but not for others.”

Newsom, who persuaded the Legislature to pass bills aimed at preventing gouging and gas-price spikes in the past two years, initially criticized the USC study and cast aspersions on the motivations of the author, Michael Mische. It’s uncertain how much, or even whether, the bills will prevent substantial gas price increases.

Republicans in the California Legislature introduced bills aimed at lowering the state’s gas tax — including a bill by Jones — but they went nowhere.

Newsom also is prohibited by term limits from running for re-election next year, but he certainly has his eye on the future.

The governor boasted “(w)e proved we can actually beat Big Oil” when he signed the anti-gouging bill in 2023. But he changed his tune after Valero and Phillips 66 announced they were shutting down refineries, as Rob Nikolewski of The San Diego Union-Tribune noted in April.

Newsom appealed to California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda to “redouble the State’s efforts to work closely with refiners” to help ensure Californians have access to fuels in the short and long term.

Gas prices may or may not go as high as Mische projects. But unless something changes, they seem certain to increase, probably by a lot. After all, when the price of a gallon goes up by a dime within a week, the public often takes notice — and the media certainly does.

Gas prices will be talked about in the upcoming campaigns, but there will be plenty of competition, including how President Donald Trump’s sweeping budget cuts and tariffs, inflation and the job market will figure into what the economy is doing.

Other issues often are vital to voter interests — abortion, gun laws, individual rights and opinions about Trump, for example — but the overall economy is consistently a big driver in election outcomes.

Nevertheless, the public’s outlook on the country often seems directly tied to gas prices. In 2022, The New York Times said polls showed Americans’ “mood has risen and fallen in surveys this year in striking sync with the price of gas.”

“The Fed uses thousands of different data series to try to track how the economy is doing,” Carola Binder, an economics professor at Haverford College, told the Times. “But obviously most of us can’t process that much information. So I think we look for rules of thumb.”

And people are aware of notable fluctuations in gas prices.

“There is no other consumer good or service with price tags that are visible from the street, all the time,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan.

The approval ratings of presidents also tend to rise and fall depending on whether gas prices are up or down.

Newsom, who has long been considered an eventual White House contender, is no doubt aware of that.

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