LOS ANGELES — Southern California’s air quality regulators are set to vote this week on new rules aimed at phasing out the sale of gas-powered furnaces and water heaters in the region.

The South Coast Air Quality Management District, or AQMD, which covers all of Orange County and large swaths of Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, is scheduled to vote Friday on two proposed regulations designed to limit emissions of nitrogen oxides, or NOx — the key pollutants that form smog.

If approved, the AQMD’s Proposed Amended Rules 1111 and 1121 would set zero-emission sales targets for manufacturers, distributors and installers of the appliances beginning in 2027. The targets ramp up over time, beginning with a 30% sales target the first year, increasing to 50% in 2029 and ultimately ending at 90% in 2036. The rules would affect an estimated 10 million units across the region, the majority of which would be in residential properties.

The gas-powered appliances would still be available for sale, but manufacturers would be forced to pay surcharges for those units — costs that probably would be passed on to consumers.

Officials say the plan is crucial for reducing air pollution and improving public health in the South Coast region, which continues to suffer from the worst smog in the nation and falls far below many federal health-based standards for air quality.

“This rule is a really important component of our strategy to clean up the air and be able to meet those health-based standards,” said Sarah Rees, deputy executive officer of planning and rules with the AQMD. “We wanted to focus on where there were the biggest chunks of NOx emissions, and space and water heating are actually a fairly significant chunk that’s left on the table for us to address.”

Environmental groups say the rules — nearly two years in the making — are long overdue and should be even more aggressive. But opponents, including gas-appliance manufacturers, fossil fuel companies and some local government and commerce groups, say the measure will strain the electric grid and drive up costs for consumers.

Prices for zero-emission units vary and can depend on factors such as the size of the home, local labor and installation costs, and whether electric panel upgrades also are required.

The estimated equipment and installation cost of an electric heat pump, for example, is $17,200, compared with $11,000 for a natural gas furnace, according to the AQMD’s socioeconomic impact report on the rules. However, because heat pumps can provide both heating and cooling, the agency notes that the cost of the electric unit is comparable to the cost of replacing a complete air conditioning and natural gas furnace system, which is about $20,600.

Heat pump water heaters are projected to cost an average of $3,700 for equipment and installation, compared with $3,300 for natural gas units, according to the AQMD.

State Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, said affordability is one of his primary concerns about the rules. He is urging his constituents to weigh in against them.

“Families living paycheck to paycheck can’t afford this kind of mandate,” Strickland said, adding that the cost of living in California is 42% higher than the national average. “I want to rein in some of these boards, like [the California Air Resources Board, or CARB,] and AQMD, because they are making decisions that are detrimental to the people of California.”

Officials stressed that the proposal is not a mandate. Although the original iteration of the rules called for an eventual ban on the sale of new gas-powered appliances, the final amended rules call for a slower phase-in of the clean technology that still allows consumers to purchase natural gas units if they wish.

But there will be additional fees imposed on manufacturers for the sale of gas-powered units. The fees include an additional $100 for gas-powered furnaces and $50 for gas-powered water heaters, which increase to $500 and $250, respectively, if manufacturers sell more gas units than allowed by their sales target.

Fees collected from the penalties will be used to fund an incentive program to help consumers purchase zero-emission appliances, such as electric heat pumps.

“It’s kind of a weaker policy, but it’s still a very important policy,” said Adrian Martinez, director of the Right To Zero campaign at the nonprofit Earthjustice. “Because even though it’s not as strong of a signal to get to zero-emission appliances, it still is a signal.”

The potential air quality improvements from the switch to electric are substantial, including an estimated reduction of 6 tons of NOx per day by 2061. By comparison, cars in the region currently emit about 9 tons of NOx per day, Martinez said.

NOx isn’t only responsible for smog. As a leading source of indoor air pollution, the emissions also have been linked to respiratory infections, increased childhood asthma and other adverse health issues from exposure in homes, particularly those without proper ventilation, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

“What we’re really talking about here is public health,” said Chris Chavez, deputy policy director at the nonprofit Coalition for Clean Air. “The fact is that if you are going to continue choosing to use polluting technology, there are going to be public health impacts — and we’re going to be paying for that through asthma attacks, we’re going to be paying for that through premature deaths, we’re going to be paying for that in hospitalizations, either personally or through our tax dollars.”

According to the AQMD’s impact report, the rules would prevent approximately 2,490 premature deaths, 10,200 cases of newly onset asthma, and 1.17 million days of limited or reduced physical and outdoor activity from 2027 to 2053.

More than 14,000 public comments have been submitted to the AQMD in response to the proposal, many of them in opposition.

“If these rules are adopted, it is crucial to recognize that consumer choice will be impacted and homeowners and renters, rather than industry, will be the ones forced to reach deep into their pockets to comply with these rules,” wrote Kevin Barker, a senior manager with the Southern California Gas Co., in a comment letter to the board.

Opponents also expressed concern that the electric appliances will add more strain to the region’s aging energy grid— or as one public commenter wrote, “we will face further electric grid brownouts due to the increased electricity use and make life in this state worse than it already is.”

Rees of the AQMD said the slow ramp-up of the rules should ensure that the grid has enough time to meet demand. The state is working to implement electrification initiatives, and officials at CARB also are moving toward a statewide ban on gas furnaces and water heaters by 2030.

And although she has heard the concerns about cost, she said zero-emission technology is more efficient — and thus more cost-effective to run — and will continue to come down in price over time. The incentive program is designed to assist customers who are struggling to meet up-front costs.

What’s more, she said the plan encourages people to purchase zero-emission appliances only when their current unit breaks or they need a replacement, and that consumers ultimately still have a choice.

“It’s really about promoting the zero-emission technology and, frankly, following existing market trends,” Rees said, noting that electric heat pumps already account for nearly a third of furnace sales in California. “We’ve worked very hard, we think, to try to craft a regulation that is going to advance adoption of these cleaner technologies but still preserves consumer choice, still allows for cases where it’s not affordable or practical for a consumer to adopt these types of equipment, but still get us the emission reductions at the end of the day.”

Still, some advocates said they wish the rules were more aggressive, including several who spoke during the AQMD’s most recent board meeting on the matter in May.

“This rule, while it’s not as strong as we wish it could be, is a step forward,” said Jennifer Cardenas, a campaign organizer with the Sierra Club. “You cannot put a price on being able to breathe clean air.”

Others pointed to the San Francisco Bay Area as an example of what’s possible. That region’s air quality management district passed its own more stringent version of the rules two years ago, which includes a total ban on the sale of new gas-powered water heaters in 2027 and furnaces in 2029.

However, Martinez of Earthjustice noted that NOx is the single-largest category of emissions under the South Coast AQMD’s authority, and said that the agency would be remiss not to take action on it.

“I think the best assessment is, are we better off with or without the rule?” he said. “Emphatically, all the evidence is showing we’re better off with the rule.”

The public can attend Friday’s hearing online or in person at the South Coast AQMD in Diamond Bar.

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